TRANSCAD教程4:DEMAND FORECASTING: TRIP GENERATION
2012-10-23 10:39:48 来源:tranbbs 作者:佚名 评论:0 点击:
Task 3. DEMAND FORECASTING: TRIP GENERATION
The first three tasks have dealt with the development of a network that represents the transportation system of Miasma Beach. This next task develops the specifications for the activity system of the region. Recall that the area has been divided into six Traffic Analysis Zones (1 through 6), with two external stations (7 and 8) which serve as control points with areas not directly part of the study area. The modeling approach is to calibrate and validate trip generation and trip distribution models for the six internal zones only. Interactions with the external area (via the external stations) have been modeled independently and these results will be provided in a subsequent task.
3.1 Description of the Zoning System
Figure 3 below depicts the defined TAZs superimposed on the corrected Miasma Beach base year transportation network (be sure that all network corrections (tasks 1 through 3) have been made before proceeding). The south side of the study area is bordered by the primary arterial, which in turn follows the Miasma shoreline. Mountains limit development to the north and west, thus any future growth must occur within the study area or to the east.
+---------------------------------------------------------------+ | N | | 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th W+E| + Str Str Str Str Str S | | ............................. | | ................ . . | | . . . . | + . 1-+----+-------+-------+-------+---+-5 . Mountain | | . | . | .| . Avenue | | .........|...... 4 | .|.................. | | . | ......|...|.......| . | + . 2-+----+-------+---+---+ +-------+---+-6 . Miasma | | . | . | .| | . Blvd | | ...... | . 3 | .| | ....... | | . | . | | .| | . | + 8+---+-----------+---+-------+-------+---+7 Coast | | ......................................... Highway | | | +---+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-----------+ Figure 3. City of Miasma Beach Zone System [Spring 2004]
A variety of demographic characteristics have been assembled for the six TAZs; these data are depicted in Table 2. Note that each project team utilizes Table 2 and Table 3 in a slightly different manner (see the instructions below).
Table 2. Sample 2004 Miasma Beach Demographic Data ----------------------------------------------------------------- ZONE POP LABF CARS HINC DU EIND ERET EOTH ETOT AREA ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1 3000 1100 900 19900 700 400 150 1000 1550 1.56 2 1550 1300 600 29900 800 300 225 1300 1825 2.53 3 3000 1200 2500 49800 1000 0 350 250 600 3.10 4 0 0 0 0 0 1300 100 200 1600 2.83 5 2450 1400 2000 33000 950 0 100 50 150 1.27 6 5000 1800 2250 38000 1550 0 425 500 925 3.09 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Tot 15000 6800 8250 5000 2000 1350 3300 6650 13.85 Mean 2500 1130 1375 35600 830 325 225 550 1100 2.31 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Definition of Variables in Table 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------ POP = zone population EIND = industrial employment LABF = labor force (by residence) ERET = retail employment CARS = total cars in zone EOth = other employment HINC = median zone household income ETOT = total zone employment DU = total dwelling units in zone Area = zone area (sq.mi.)
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3.2 Development of Trip Production and Attraction Models
As part of the development of the Miasma Beach Transportation Model, an extensive home interview survey was completed. Travel diaries were collected for all members of approximately 1000 households in the six internal zones. Furthermore, an extensive Cordon Survey was conducted to develop estimates of traffic entering and exiting the study area at the defined external stations. Preliminary analysis of the travel diaries led to the estimation of population-level trip productions and attractions for the study area. Total trips were segmented into three conventional categories:
HBW -- Home Based Work trips
HBO -- Home Based Other trips, and
NHB -- Non-Home Based trips
A total of 60,000 daily person trips were generated by Miasma Beach residents in the base year (2004); Table 3 presents base year trip productions and attractions. Overall, these trips were found to be split 20 percent HBW, 50 percent HBO, and 30 percent NHB. It's believed that these trip types are fundamentally different based on such attributes as time-of-day, mean trip length, and vehicle occupancy.
Table 3. 2004 Miasma Beach Productions and Attractions ------------------------------------------------------ ZONE TOT/P TOT/A HBW/P HBW/A HBO/P HBO/A NHB/P NHB/A ------------------------------------------------------ 1 11550 10300 1800 3200 5500 4800 4250 2300 2 11800 11800 1800 2800 5500 6000 4500 3000 3 12050 12300 2700 1100 6600 6900 2750 4300 4 1500 5600 0 3100 0 1800 1500 700 5 8850 4800 2200 300 5400 1800 1250 2700 6 14250 15200 3500 1500 7000 8700 3750 5000 ------------------------------------------------------ Tot 60000 60000 12000 12000 30000 30000 18000 18000 Mean 10000 10000 2000 2000 5000 5000 3000 3000 ------------------------------------------------------
The tabulated demographic and trip end data provided may be used to develop and/or apply zonal production and attraction trip generation models for Home-Based Work (HBW), Home-Based Other (HBO), and Non home-Based (NHB) trips.
3.2.1 Miasma Beach Spring 2004 Instructions
Production and attraction models have been estimated for some of the trip types; these are summarized in Table 4 (a and b). Each project consultant will use different combinations of the estimated production models (see Table 4c) but all consultants will use the same attraction models. Models for HBO productions have not been estimated; you must develop these NHB models. All models represent daily person trips; conversion to hourly vehicle trips will be made in a subsequent task.
It is recommended that you either verify these models using TransCAD or attempt to estimate alternative (perhaps better) production and attraction models. Provide a summary table for the models selected (whether those provided or those estimated); include all summary statistics.
Table 4a. Estimated Trip Production Models [coef (t)] -------------------------------------------------------- Variable HBW#1 HBW#2 HBW#3 NHB#1 NHB#2 -------------------------------------------------------- DU
相关热词搜索: TR RA AN NS SC CA AD D教 教程 程4 4: :
上一篇:TRANSCAD教程3:DEVELOP 2004 BASE YEAR TransCAD NETWORK and SKIMS
下一篇:TRANSCAD教程5:DEMAND FORECASTING: TRIP DISTRIBUTION

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