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Measuring the Success of Transit-Oriented Development: Retail Market Dynamics and Other Key Determinants

更新时间:2007-8-27  来源:tranbbs  作者:佚名  人气:  [ 投稿 ] [投稿帮助
  TOD’s success will to a great degree depend on the response of the retail marketplace, including developers, store owners, and consumers, to the imperatives of density and transit accessibility. This follows from the significant fraction of all personal trips, including commute trips, that now involve nonwork activities.

Unless present long-standing trends are reversed, the marketplace will continue to evolve, producing ever greater variety and choice and, as a result, greater spatial dispersion of activity locations and more complex travel patterns. Consumer goods, services, and entertainment are converging to create new types of consumer venues where kids and parents can eat, shop, and play together or separately. At the same time, new market forces are rapidly entering the scene in ways that may gradually change the spatial relationships of consumer to stores. Online sales tripLED in 1998 over 1997. But even in the $4-5 billion range, it is minuscule compared to $2.3 trillion in retail overall.[Page]

Market richness has allowed older retail strip neighborhood centers to adapt and flourish even as they have lost traditional stores to the economies of scale and clustering. New kinds of specialty goods and services have entered the market. For example, some older neighborhood centers have become regional or sub regional destinations for consumers seeking an ethnic dining experience or antique chair. These centers, that may have otherwise been candidates for redevelopment and consolidation to a TOD had they remained underutilized, have developed a new life without the requirement that they change their form.

The large number of market variables and these dynamic changes make it difficult to predict the response of developers, store owners, and consumers to

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