This analysis shows clearly how significantly the effect of employment increases are on annual ridership and on reduction of costs per rider. The black dots in the graphs reflect the alternatives tested for the Plan, which are towards the conservative and politically more palatable end of the intensification spectrum. This testing provides the city with a good understanding of what the payoffs are in terms of ridership and reduced costs from increased densification. This modeling occurred in parallel with the conventional four-step model, and is described in detail in the paper Estimating Ridership and Economic Benefits of Coordinated Transit and Urban Development: A Heuristic Approach.
Evaluation
Figure 12:
The evaluation of alternatives utilized conventional indicators such as capital cost per mile (Figure 12) and annual cost per annual rider. The numbers of jobs and households within a half-mile of station areas are also included as explicit factors. Long-term corridor auto congestion was also a factor because transit would be a more attractive choice in those corridors with high congestion long term.
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The overall approach was to minimize investment risks and initially implement lower cost systems. As ridership builds, the next stage of improvement will be evaluated and more expensive improvements or technology may be implemented. Many of the corridors were "technology-neutral"; that is, they could absorb either Bus Rapid Transit or Light Rail within the same rights-of-way. Accordingly, most of the corridors are recommended for bus rapid transit one or t
