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MODELLING THE DAILY TRAFFIC FLOWS ON AN HOURLY BASIS

更新时间:2007-8-27  来源:tranbbs  作者:佚名  人气:  [ 投稿 ] [投稿帮助
  twork will be most congested. For planning new facilities, this approach is a valid one, since it allows the planner to adjust the dimensions of the proposed new facilities and also to compare the peak performance of different proposed scenarios. This type of planning was most typical for the sixties and seventies, when the main challenge of the planning efforts was to decide how and where to build new roads to cope with the rapid growth.

However, the goal of transportation planning has drastically shifted away from the mere planning of new facilities. More and more, the transportation planner's primary task is to study the impacts of the existing traffic in a more global way, and to assess the effects of changes to the transportation infrastructure with respect to environmental issues, such as emissions of the various pollutants, noise levels and energy consumption. Since these questions are concerned with the total impacts during the entire day, such as computing the total amount of emitted pollutants per day, the peak-hour models are not suitable for this type of problem. On the other hand, the congestion effects are not neglectable in an urban setting, and the impacts to be computed are, in general, very sensitive to the speed of the cars, thus 24-hour models are not suitable either in this context.

Recently, a lot of research has been carried out to replace the steady-state models by true dynamic models, which take into account explicitly the time dependence of the transportation demand. Instead of modelling the demand in the form of a simple O-D matrix, these models also need a departure or arrival time for every trip. Knowing that in real applications, obtaining even a reasonably good static trip matrix is a major challenge, it is clear that providing arrival or departure times at the individual trip level is an almost impossible task to realize in practice. Thus, while the dynamic assignment approach is very promising in the

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